For the first time ever, China’s carbon dioxide emissions have declined even as its power demand has increased, a possible sign of a longer-term fall in emissions
By James Dinneen
15 May 2025
This floating solar farm in Huainan, China, is part of the country’s renewable power system
Imago / Alamy
China, the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, has seen a slight decline in those emissions over the past 12 months, even as demand for power has gone up. This is an encouraging sign that the country’s massive investment in clean energy has begun to displace fossil fuels – but emissions could still surge again.
That is according to an analysis of China’s economic and energy data by Lauri Myllivirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a research organisation in Finland. The report, published in Carbon Brief, finds that the country’s CO2 emissions have declined by 1 per cent over the past 12 months. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, emissions declined by 1.6 per cent relative to last year.
Read more
Why China's clean energy tech will determine our climate future
Advertisement
This isn’t the first time that China’s CO2 emissions have dipped. For instance, they dropped in 2022 as the economy came to a standstill during covid-19 lockdowns. But this is the first time emissions have fallen even as the country has used more power. “That, of course, means the current fall in emissions has a much better chance of being sustained,” says Myllivirta.
That is mainly a consequence of China’s record development of solar, wind and nuclear power, which is beginning to eat into the total electricity generated by burning fossil fuels. Wider economic shifts away from cement and steel production, which are carbon-intensive industries, have also contributed to the decline. Another factor is the jump in the share of people driving electric vehicles, which has cut into the demand for oil.
If China maintains these trends, its carbon emissions could continue to fall. A sustained drop would indicate the country has passed peak emissions, putting it several years ahead of its 2030 target. The achievement would represent a substantial physical and psychological milestone for efforts to tackle climate change, says Myllivirta.